National and Subnational estimates for the United States of America

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America.

Table of Contents


Expected daily cases by region


Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases

National summary

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 3352 – 7297
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.8 – 5.1
Rate of spread -0.064 – 0.35
Doubling time (days) 2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.53 – 0.9


Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 2: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Regional Breakdown

Data availability

Limitations

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions

Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates summary table

Region Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Alabama 1 – 19 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2 2.9 – Cases decreasing
Alaska 3 – 34 Likely increasing 0.9 – 3.2 0.23 – Cases decreasing
Arizona 8 – 61 Increasing 1.3 – 3.2 1.4 – Cases decreasing
Arkansas 19 – 80 Increasing 1.3 – 2 2.4 – Cases decreasing
California 134 – 625 Increasing 1.1 – 2.3 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Colorado 50 – 206 Increasing 1 – 1.9 2.4 – Cases decreasing
Connecticut 7 – 77 Increasing 1 – 2 1.1 – Cases decreasing
Delaware 2 – 6 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2.5 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Florida 101 – 337 Increasing 1.5 – 2.3 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Georgia 51 – 252 Increasing 1 – 2.8 1.4 – Cases decreasing
Hawaii 1 – 47 Likely increasing 0.9 – 4.9 0.98 – Cases decreasing
Idaho 1 – 20 Increasing 1.1 – 2.7 1 – Cases decreasing
Illinois 156 – 584 Increasing 1.3 – 5.1 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Indiana 36 – 288 Increasing 1.5 – 6.1 1.2 – Cases decreasing
Iowa 7 – 96 Increasing 1.1 – 4.6 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Kansas 5 – 17 Increasing 1.6 – 3.1 0.49 – Cases decreasing
Kentucky 2 – 58 Increasing 1.3 – 3.7 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Louisiana 102 – 616 Increasing 1.4 – 2.9 2 – Cases decreasing
Maine 8 – 55 Increasing 1.4 – 2.9 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Maryland 17 – 94 Increasing 1 – 2.7 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Massachusetts 36 – 242 Increasing 1.3 – 2.6 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Michigan 314 – 573 Increasing 1.8 – 3.3 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Minnesota 5 – 66 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2 0.87 – Cases decreasing
Mississippi 35 – 185 Increasing 1.6 – 6.7 1.4 – 33
Missouri 20 – 140 Increasing 1.1 – 4.4 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Montana 6 – 22 Increasing 1.1 – 3.6 0.16 – Cases decreasing
Nebraska 5 – 30 Increasing 1.1 – 2.9 0.27 – Cases decreasing
Nevada 8 – 69 Increasing 1.1 – 2.8 2.5 – Cases decreasing
New Hampshire 5 – 37 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2.4 2.4 – Cases decreasing
New Jersey 282 – 1585 Increasing 1.7 – 3.5 1.6 – 11
New Mexico 8 – 35 Increasing 1.1 – 2.8 1.6 – Cases decreasing
New York 1435 – 7290 Increasing 1.3 – 4 2.1 – Cases decreasing
North Carolina 52 – 98 Increasing 1.5 – 2.4 2.1 – 26
North Dakota 6 – 49 Likely increasing 0.8 – 6.7 0.24 – Cases decreasing
Ohio 51 – 250 Increasing 1.3 – 3.7 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Oklahoma 7 – 40 Increasing 1.2 – 3.8 0.39 – Cases decreasing
Oregon 13 – 79 Increasing 1.3 – 2.9 1.9 – Cases decreasing
Pennsylvania 68 – 254 Increasing 1.3 – 2.4 2 – Cases decreasing
Rhode Island 6 – 58 Increasing 1.2 – 3.1 1.9 – Cases decreasing
South Carolina 10 – 48 Increasing 1.2 – 2.8 0.81 – Cases decreasing
South Dakota 2 – 28 Increasing 1 – 4 0.064 – Cases decreasing
Tennessee 33 – 247 Increasing 1.6 – 3.2 2.1 – Cases decreasing
Texas 15 – 105 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2.9 2.8 – Cases decreasing
Utah 33 – 91 Increasing 1.4 – 3.3 0.036 – Cases decreasing
Vermont 15 – 57 Increasing 1.3 – 4.4 1.5 – Cases decreasing
Virginia 18 – 147 Increasing 1.2 – 3.8 1.7 – 160
Washington 75 – 380 Increasing 1 – 1.8 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Wisconsin 47 – 230 Increasing 1.4 – 3 1.3 – Cases decreasing
Wyoming 2 – 7 Increasing 1 – 2.4 0.12 – Cases decreasing


Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Regional reports

Alabama

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 19
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 2
Rate of spread -0.73 – 0.24
Doubling time (days) 2.9 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.35


Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Alaska

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 3 – 34
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 3.2
Rate of spread -5.7 – 3.1
Doubling time (days) 0.23 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.21


Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Arizona

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 8 – 61
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 3.2
Rate of spread -0.23 – 0.48
Doubling time (days) 1.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.14 – 0.84


Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Arkansas

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 19 – 80
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2
Rate of spread -0.098 – 0.29
Doubling time (days) 2.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.79


Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

California

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 134 – 625
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.3
Rate of spread -0.061 – 0.32
Doubling time (days) 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.13 – 0.92


Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Colorado

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 50 – 206
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 1.9
Rate of spread -0.086 – 0.29
Doubling time (days) 2.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.16 – 0.57


Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Connecticut

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 7 – 77
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2
Rate of spread -2.6 – 0.62
Doubling time (days) 1.1 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -1 – 0.61


Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Delaware

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 2 – 6
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 2.5
Rate of spread -0.38 – 0.4
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.18 – 0.64


Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Florida

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 101 – 337
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 2.3
Rate of spread -0.01 – 0.28
Doubling time (days) 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.077 – 0.92


Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Georgia

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 51 – 252
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.8
Rate of spread -0.23 – 0.5
Doubling time (days) 1.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.22 – 0.58


Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Hawaii

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 47
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 4.9
Rate of spread -0.45 – 0.71
Doubling time (days) 0.98 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.091 – 0.74


Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Idaho

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 20
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.7
Rate of spread -0.56 – 0.66
Doubling time (days) 1 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.5 – 0.72


Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Illinois

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 156 – 584
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 5.1
Rate of spread -0.02 – 0.41
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.11 – 0.9


Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Indiana

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 36 – 288
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 6.1
Rate of spread -0.17 – 0.58
Doubling time (days) 1.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.14 – 0.94


Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Iowa

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 7 – 96
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 4.6
Rate of spread -0.053 – 0.41
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.12 – 0.69


Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Kansas

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 5 – 17
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.6 – 3.1
Rate of spread -0.43 – 1.4
Doubling time (days) 0.49 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.14 – 0.67


Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Kentucky

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 2 – 58
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 3.7
Rate of spread -0.28 – 0.44
Doubling time (days) 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.28 – 0.8


Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 41: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 42: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Louisiana

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 102 – 616
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 2.9
Rate of spread -0.18 – 0.35
Doubling time (days) 2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 0.54


Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Maine

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 8 – 55
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 2.9
Rate of spread -0.31 – 0.43
Doubling time (days) 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.7


Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 45: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 46: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Maryland

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 17 – 94
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.7
Rate of spread -0.12 – 0.31
Doubling time (days) 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 0.92


Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 47: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 48: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Massachusetts

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 36 – 242
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.019 – 0.31
Doubling time (days) 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.031 – 0.84


Table 23: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 49: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 50: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Michigan

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 314 – 573
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.8 – 3.3
Rate of spread -0.052 – 0.44
Doubling time (days) 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.16 – 0.96


Table 24: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 51: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 52: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Minnesota

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 5 – 66
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 2
Rate of spread -0.29 – 0.79
Doubling time (days) 0.87 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.29 – 0.53


Table 25: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 53: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 54: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Mississippi

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 35 – 185
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.6 – 6.7
Rate of spread 0.021 – 0.51
Doubling time (days) 1.4 – 33
Adjusted R-squared 0.019 – 0.96


Table 26: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 55: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 56: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Missouri

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 20 – 140
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 4.4
Rate of spread -0.1 – 0.4
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.15 – 0.93


Table 27: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 57: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 58: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Montana

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 6 – 22
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 3.6
Rate of spread -0.077 – 4.4
Doubling time (days) 0.16 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.061 – 0.59


Table 28: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 59: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 60: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Nebraska

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 5 – 30
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.9
Rate of spread -0.68 – 2.6
Doubling time (days) 0.27 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.15 – 0.48


Table 29: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 61: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 62: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Nevada

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 8 – 69
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.8
Rate of spread -0.13 – 0.27
Doubling time (days) 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.14 – 0.9


Table 30: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 63: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 64: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

New Hampshire

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 5 – 37
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.17 – 0.29
Doubling time (days) 2.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.13 – 0.59


Table 31: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 65: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 66: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

New Jersey

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 282 – 1585
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.7 – 3.5
Rate of spread 0.065 – 0.43
Doubling time (days) 1.6 – 11
Adjusted R-squared 0.23 – 0.97


Table 32: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 67: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 68: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

New Mexico

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 8 – 35
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.8
Rate of spread -0.19 – 0.43
Doubling time (days) 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.84


Table 33: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 69: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 70: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

New York

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1435 – 7290
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 4
Rate of spread -0.4 – 0.34
Doubling time (days) 2.1 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 0.96


Table 34: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 71: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 72: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

North Carolina

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 52 – 98
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 2.4
Rate of spread 0.027 – 0.34
Doubling time (days) 2.1 – 26
Adjusted R-squared 0.25 – 0.87


Table 35: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 73: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 74: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

North Dakota

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 6 – 49
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.8 – 6.7
Rate of spread -4.6 – 2.8
Doubling time (days) 0.24 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.094 – 0.96


Table 36: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 75: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 76: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Ohio

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 51 – 250
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 3.7
Rate of spread -0.09 – 0.43
Doubling time (days) 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.98


Table 37: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 77: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 78: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Oklahoma

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 7 – 40
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 3.8
Rate of spread -0.32 – 1.8
Doubling time (days) 0.39 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.56


Table 38: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 79: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 80: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Oregon

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 13 – 79
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.9
Rate of spread -0.16 – 0.37
Doubling time (days) 1.9 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.15 – 0.84


Table 39: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 81: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 82: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Pennsylvania

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 68 – 254
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.58 – 0.35
Doubling time (days) 2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.94


Table 40: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 83: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 84: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Rhode Island

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 6 – 58
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 3.1
Rate of spread -0.018 – 0.37
Doubling time (days) 1.9 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared 0.066 – 0.92


Table 41: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 85: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 86: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

South Carolina

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 10 – 48
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.8
Rate of spread -0.4 – 0.86
Doubling time (days) 0.81 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.43 – 0.75


Table 42: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 87: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 88: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

South Dakota

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 2 – 28
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 4
Rate of spread -4.4 – 11
Doubling time (days) 0.064 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.45


Table 43: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 89: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 90: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Tennessee

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 33 – 247
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.6 – 3.2
Rate of spread -0.034 – 0.33
Doubling time (days) 2.1 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.16 – 0.97


Table 44: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 91: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 92: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Texas

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 15 – 105
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 2.9
Rate of spread -0.8 – 0.25
Doubling time (days) 2.8 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.5 – 0.56


Table 45: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 93: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 94: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Utah

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 33 – 91
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 3.3
Rate of spread -0.58 – 19
Doubling time (days) 0.036 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 1


Table 46: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 95: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 96: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Vermont

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 15 – 57
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 4.4
Rate of spread -2.8 – 0.47
Doubling time (days) 1.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.099 – 0.6


Table 47: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 97: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 98: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Virginia

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 18 – 147
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 3.8
Rate of spread 0.0043 – 0.41
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – 160
Adjusted R-squared -0.065 – 0.93


Table 48: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 99: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 100: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Washington

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 75 – 380
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 1.8
Rate of spread -0.72 – 0.21
Doubling time (days) 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.51


Table 49: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 101: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 102: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Wisconsin

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 47 – 230
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 3
Rate of spread -0.13 – 0.53
Doubling time (days) 1.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.21 – 0.85


Table 50: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 103: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 104: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Wyoming

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 2 – 7
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.4
Rate of spread -8.4 – 6
Doubling time (days) 0.12 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.45 – 0.22


Table 51: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 105: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 106: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “NCoVUtils: Utility Functions for the 2019-Ncov Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635417.

Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.

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