Table of Contents
Expected daily cases by region
Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases
National summary
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3352 – 7297 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.8 – 5.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.064 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.53 – 0.9 |
Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 2: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Regional Breakdown
Data availability
- Case counts by date, stratified by region (Abbott et al. 2020).
- Case onset dates were estimated using case counts by date of report and a distribution of reporting delays fitted to a publically available line-list of cases reported in the United States (Xu et al., n.d.; Abbott et al. 2020).
Limitations
- Line-list data to inform a State specific estimates of the reporting delay were not available.
Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates
Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.
Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently
Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently
Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Reproduction numbers over time in all regions
Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions
Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Latest estimates summary table
| Region | Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 – 19 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2 | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Alaska | 3 – 34 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 3.2 | 0.23 – Cases decreasing |
| Arizona | 8 – 61 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.2 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Arkansas | 19 – 80 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2 | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| California | 134 – 625 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.3 | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Colorado | 50 – 206 | Increasing | 1 – 1.9 | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Connecticut | 7 – 77 | Increasing | 1 – 2 | 1.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Delaware | 2 – 6 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2.5 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Florida | 101 – 337 | Increasing | 1.5 – 2.3 | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Georgia | 51 – 252 | Increasing | 1 – 2.8 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Hawaii | 1 – 47 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 4.9 | 0.98 – Cases decreasing |
| Idaho | 1 – 20 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.7 | 1 – Cases decreasing |
| Illinois | 156 – 584 | Increasing | 1.3 – 5.1 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Indiana | 36 – 288 | Increasing | 1.5 – 6.1 | 1.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Iowa | 7 – 96 | Increasing | 1.1 – 4.6 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Kansas | 5 – 17 | Increasing | 1.6 – 3.1 | 0.49 – Cases decreasing |
| Kentucky | 2 – 58 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.7 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Louisiana | 102 – 616 | Increasing | 1.4 – 2.9 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Maine | 8 – 55 | Increasing | 1.4 – 2.9 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Maryland | 17 – 94 | Increasing | 1 – 2.7 | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Massachusetts | 36 – 242 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.6 | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Michigan | 314 – 573 | Increasing | 1.8 – 3.3 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Minnesota | 5 – 66 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2 | 0.87 – Cases decreasing |
| Mississippi | 35 – 185 | Increasing | 1.6 – 6.7 | 1.4 – 33 |
| Missouri | 20 – 140 | Increasing | 1.1 – 4.4 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Montana | 6 – 22 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3.6 | 0.16 – Cases decreasing |
| Nebraska | 5 – 30 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.9 | 0.27 – Cases decreasing |
| Nevada | 8 – 69 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.8 | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| New Hampshire | 5 – 37 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2.4 | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| New Jersey | 282 – 1585 | Increasing | 1.7 – 3.5 | 1.6 – 11 |
| New Mexico | 8 – 35 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.8 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| New York | 1435 – 7290 | Increasing | 1.3 – 4 | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| North Carolina | 52 – 98 | Increasing | 1.5 – 2.4 | 2.1 – 26 |
| North Dakota | 6 – 49 | Likely increasing | 0.8 – 6.7 | 0.24 – Cases decreasing |
| Ohio | 51 – 250 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.7 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Oklahoma | 7 – 40 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.8 | 0.39 – Cases decreasing |
| Oregon | 13 – 79 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.9 | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Pennsylvania | 68 – 254 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.4 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Rhode Island | 6 – 58 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.1 | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| South Carolina | 10 – 48 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.8 | 0.81 – Cases decreasing |
| South Dakota | 2 – 28 | Increasing | 1 – 4 | 0.064 – Cases decreasing |
| Tennessee | 33 – 247 | Increasing | 1.6 – 3.2 | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Texas | 15 – 105 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2.9 | 2.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Utah | 33 – 91 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3.3 | 0.036 – Cases decreasing |
| Vermont | 15 – 57 | Increasing | 1.3 – 4.4 | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Virginia | 18 – 147 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.8 | 1.7 – 160 |
| Washington | 75 – 380 | Increasing | 1 – 1.8 | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Wisconsin | 47 – 230 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3 | 1.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Wyoming | 2 – 7 | Increasing | 1 – 2.4 | 0.12 – Cases decreasing |
Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Regional reports
Alabama
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 19 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.73 – 0.24 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.35 |
Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Alaska
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 34 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -5.7 – 3.1 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.23 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.21 |
Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Arizona
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 8 – 61 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.23 – 0.48 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.14 – 0.84 |
Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Arkansas
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 19 – 80 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.098 – 0.29 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.79 |
Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
California
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 134 – 625 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.061 – 0.32 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.13 – 0.92 |
Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Colorado
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 50 – 206 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 1.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.086 – 0.29 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.57 |
Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Connecticut
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 77 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2 |
| Rate of spread | -2.6 – 0.62 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -1 – 0.61 |
Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Delaware
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 6 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.38 – 0.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.18 – 0.64 |
Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Florida
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 101 – 337 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.01 – 0.28 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.077 – 0.92 |
Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Georgia
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 51 – 252 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.23 – 0.5 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.22 – 0.58 |
Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Hawaii
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 47 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 4.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.45 – 0.71 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.98 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.091 – 0.74 |
Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Idaho
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 20 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.56 – 0.66 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.5 – 0.72 |
Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Illinois
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 156 – 584 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 5.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.02 – 0.41 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.11 – 0.9 |
Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Indiana
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 36 – 288 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 6.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.17 – 0.58 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.14 – 0.94 |
Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Iowa
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 96 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 4.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.053 – 0.41 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.12 – 0.69 |
Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Kansas
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 17 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.6 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.43 – 1.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.49 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.14 – 0.67 |
Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Kentucky
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 58 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.28 – 0.44 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.28 – 0.8 |
Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 41: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 42: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Louisiana
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 102 – 616 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.18 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.54 |
Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Maine
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 8 – 55 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.31 – 0.43 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.7 |
Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 45: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 46: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Maryland
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 17 – 94 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.12 – 0.31 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.92 |
Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 47: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 48: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Massachusetts
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 36 – 242 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.019 – 0.31 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.031 – 0.84 |
Table 23: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 49: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 50: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Michigan
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 314 – 573 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.8 – 3.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.052 – 0.44 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.96 |
Table 24: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 51: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 52: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Minnesota
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 66 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.29 – 0.79 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.87 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.29 – 0.53 |
Table 25: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 53: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 54: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Mississippi
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 35 – 185 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.6 – 6.7 |
| Rate of spread | 0.021 – 0.51 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – 33 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.019 – 0.96 |
Table 26: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 55: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 56: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Missouri
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 20 – 140 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 4.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.1 – 0.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.15 – 0.93 |
Table 27: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 57: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 58: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Montana
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 6 – 22 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.077 – 4.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.16 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.061 – 0.59 |
Table 28: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 59: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 60: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Nebraska
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 30 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.68 – 2.6 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.27 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.15 – 0.48 |
Table 29: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 61: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 62: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Nevada
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 8 – 69 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.13 – 0.27 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.14 – 0.9 |
Table 30: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 63: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 64: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
New Hampshire
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 37 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.17 – 0.29 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.13 – 0.59 |
Table 31: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 65: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 66: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
New Jersey
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 282 – 1585 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.7 – 3.5 |
| Rate of spread | 0.065 – 0.43 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – 11 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.23 – 0.97 |
Table 32: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 67: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 68: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
New Mexico
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 8 – 35 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.19 – 0.43 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.84 |
Table 33: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 69: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 70: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
New York
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1435 – 7290 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.4 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.96 |
Table 34: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 71: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 72: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
North Carolina
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 52 – 98 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | 0.027 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.1 – 26 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.25 – 0.87 |
Table 35: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 73: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 74: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
North Dakota
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 6 – 49 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.8 – 6.7 |
| Rate of spread | -4.6 – 2.8 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.24 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.094 – 0.96 |
Table 36: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 75: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 76: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Ohio
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 51 – 250 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.09 – 0.43 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.98 |
Table 37: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 77: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 78: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Oklahoma
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 40 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.32 – 1.8 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.39 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.56 |
Table 38: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 79: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 80: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Oregon
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 13 – 79 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.16 – 0.37 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.15 – 0.84 |
Table 39: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 81: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 82: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Pennsylvania
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 68 – 254 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.58 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.94 |
Table 40: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 83: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 84: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Rhode Island
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 6 – 58 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.018 – 0.37 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.066 – 0.92 |
Table 41: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 85: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 86: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
South Carolina
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 10 – 48 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.4 – 0.86 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.81 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.43 – 0.75 |
Table 42: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 87: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 88: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
South Dakota
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 28 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 4 |
| Rate of spread | -4.4 – 11 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.064 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.45 |
Table 43: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 89: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 90: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Tennessee
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 33 – 247 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.6 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.034 – 0.33 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.97 |
Table 44: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 91: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 92: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Texas
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 15 – 105 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.8 – 0.25 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.5 – 0.56 |
Table 45: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 93: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 94: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Utah
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 33 – 91 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.58 – 19 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.036 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 1 |
Table 46: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 95: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 96: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Vermont
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 15 – 57 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 4.4 |
| Rate of spread | -2.8 – 0.47 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.099 – 0.6 |
Table 47: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 97: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 98: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Virginia
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 18 – 147 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.8 |
| Rate of spread | 0.0043 – 0.41 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – 160 |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.065 – 0.93 |
Table 48: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 99: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 100: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Washington
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 75 – 380 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 1.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.72 – 0.21 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.51 |
Table 49: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 101: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 102: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Wisconsin
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 47 – 230 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.13 – 0.53 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.21 – 0.85 |
Table 50: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 103: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 104: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Wyoming
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 7 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -8.4 – 6 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.12 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.45 – 0.22 |
Table 51: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 105: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 106: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “NCoVUtils: Utility Functions for the 2019-Ncov Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635417.
Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.